Betting Markets Know Best–Who Is Likely To Win The Midterm Elections?

Betting Markets Know Best–Who Is Likely To Win The Midterm Elections?

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The midterms are here. Many people make confident predictions. But whom should we trust?

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We’ve got the “experts” on tv.

Polls–there are lots of them.

Professional election forecasters.

And finally, the best predictors: people who bet.

The bettors are more accurate than anybody else, maybe because they put their own money on the line.

electionbettingodds.com, a website I created with Maxim Lott, averages prediction market data from betting websites around the world. That’s the best information we have about the future…(read more at source)



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43 Comments

  1. In the about section "Methodology *very technical*"

    "In other words, the bid is (1/50)=2% and the ask is (1/25)=4%. It seems logical that the implied chance is the average: 3%."
    "In cases where the bid-ask spread is greater than 10%, the bid alone is used, because it provides a solid lower-bound."
    "In cases where the bid is greater than 50% and the bid-ask spread is greater than 10%, the ask alone is used."

    I doubt it matters, but using the geometric mean and the distance to the extremes would eliminate the 10% that was chosen because we have 10 fingers. If there are no bids, the odds would be 0%, if there are no asks, the odds would be 100%.

  2. Trump acts only to look after his own interests and those of a small group of a few people close to him, with the support of criminals who act against the Constitution. The American people and the environment in which they live, cannot get anything good out of it.

  3. IF MY CANDIDATE DOSEN"T WIN ITS FRAUD!!! I swear being a normal American and listening to anybody now is like playing monopoly with a child throwing a tantrum… I guess evolution needs more time to do its thing.

  4. sport cars must returned back to dealer for public's physiological health. there are lots of people whose have problem with sport cars used by neighbor in top open / closed areas. freeways & tunnels. usually these people had passed through past traumas like neighbor is using sport very loud car since years, and buying louder cars every time he changes the same car with louder one and other not loud cars at home with the loud one. it caused great panic when it starts the engine, people around could feel themselves in war . it is very sad situation to wake up by big explosion sound, or go to work with big explosion sound. and if this continues every time that neighbor does not feel safe even if that day the loud car did not used. the people whose affected are mostly recently turned noise sensitive people, pregnents , people with heart problems and etc.,
    people of use sport cars should return their cars to dealers and start to use regular decibeled cars, otherwise these people should be considered TERRORIST because they are terrorizing people around. and government must handle their diciplinary issue.

  5. I don't know who wins this election but, I believe republicans are loosing too much popularity upon every time mass shooting happens. in England even police does not use gun, instead use teaser . but in America regular people have and use different kind of guns. then they are getting mad of something and killing people, this is still not talked about neighbor to neighbor issue. threatening neighbor with gun is so terrible.

  6. I am republican, but I don't have problem if democrat wins if the following safety issues are done.
    prohibitation of sexual PDA of any kind starting from holding hand to make out in public or public view and police or security must involve in stop or arrest even there is no physical complaints, where as lots of people get bothered for themselves if they are single but seperated , died in car crash , devorced, parents devorced , disable physically and / or mentaly , army martier wives and etc. at every plaza there must be put PDA police and special cameras to detect those couples in public streets and / or stores and police to involve for public physcological safety. we , single sufferers in love have the right to live peacefully and hence to walk in public safely without overwealming if to see couple making out and there is no judgement . and I ask people stop petting in public places and / or at home with the presence of guests , because you don't know the front person's emotions and he / she does not want to show you anger or being uncomfirtable and fight with you in any manner. with the fear of family interferance this includes socioculture too. let us live peacefully.

  7. It’s so they, the democrats can say we cheated but we WON’T cheat but we will take it back. These people are insane and they are destroying our beautiful country.

  8. Oh John Stossel, I don't wake up fast, I have been relying on polls and prediction by the
    those "experts" at CNN for a very long time. I could not believe that Donald Trump won in 2016.
    CNN made me believe that Hillary Clinton was about to be nominated for President, I believed
    everything CNN predicted, because I thought they were fair and balanced, little did I know that
    CNN anchor hosts and their guests promote and support Democratic Party agenda, and they
    are all Democrats, just like Fox News are all for Republican Party. I DO NOT want to rely on
    news anchors that supports their Political Party. You sound like the real "Fair and Balanced"
    person. I decided to wait until Tuesday night when the polling closes, and results comes out officially.

  9. You’re being too kind. Those polls that the media use are propaganda. For example, they like to say their party is slightly behind. This relaxes the "enemy" and inspires the others to get out and support their team in a close match.

  10. Now since Russia has exposed the Democratic false flag , dirty bomb intended for the win of the even dirtier Biden & his leftist reprobates , any idiot can discern the outcome
    Man Russia decides , The US is delivered into Russias hands

  11. Dear John
    Enjoyed your segment on following the betting sites as a good indicator/predictor of election results. Great Journalism, thank you.
    During the elections between Trump and Clinton the odds shifted late in the race — what drove that change in the odds that late in the race?

  12. The DEMOCRATS WILL TAKE THE HOUSE & SENATE. They DEMOCRATS will do EXACTLY what they did in the 2020 Election. If they don’t win they’ll call on their troops “BLM & ANTIFA” to go out in the streets and destroy AMERICA again and YES ofcourse they’ll blame the Republicans…

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